Betting on football becomes a lot less scary once you can read the numbers. Odds aren’t just symbols — they show probability, payout size, and where the market thinks a match is headed. This guide explains football odds in plain English, walks you through calculations, and gives practical tips for finding value and betting responsibly.
Why learning to read odds matters
Odds tell you two things: how likely an outcome is (implied probability) and how much you’ll get paid if you win (payout). Whether you’re using a sportsbook, betting exchange, or in-play market, odds are the language of betting. Knowing how to read decimal, fractional, and American (moneyline) odds helps you compare bookmakers, calculate returns, and spot value bets.
What are football odds?
In short, odds convert the bookmaker’s view of probability into a payout format. Bookmakers set odds to balance risk and ensure a margin (the vig or overround). Odds reflect:
- Probability — higher odds = lower implied probability.
- Payout — the amount you receive if your bet wins (stake + profit).
- Market sentiment — odds change when information (injuries, team news) or money flow changes.
Types of football odds (with easy examples)
There are three main formats bettors encounter worldwide.
1. Fractional odds (e.g., 5/1)
Format: numerator/denominator (profit/stake).
How to read: 5/1 means you win 5 units for every 1 unit staked (profit), plus you get your original stake back.
Example: Stake ₦100 at 5/1.
- Profit = 5 × ₦100 = ₦500.
- Total return = profit + stake = ₦500 + ₦100 = ₦600.
2. Decimal odds (e.g., 2.50)
Format: One number showing total return per unit staked (stake × decimal odds = total return).
How to read: 2.50 means for each ₦1 staked, you receive ₦2.50 back (including your stake).
Example: Stake ₦100 at 2.50.
- Total return = ₦100 × 2.50 = ₦250.
- Profit = total return − stake = ₦250 − ₦100 = ₦150.
3. American odds (Moneyline) (e.g., +150 or −200)
Format: Positive or negative numbers.
- Positive (+150): amount you win on a ₦100 stake.
- Negative (−200): amount you must stake to win ₦100.
Examples:
- Stake ₦100 at +150:
- Profit = ₦150 (bookmaker pays ₦150 on top of ₦100 stake).
- Total return = ₦250.
- Profit = ₦150 (bookmaker pays ₦150 on top of ₦100 stake).
- Stake ₦200 at −200:
- A −200 favourite means you must stake ₦200 to win ₦100 profit.
- Total return = ₦200 + ₦100 = ₦300 if the bet wins.
- A −200 favourite means you must stake ₦200 to win ₦100 profit.
How to calculate probability from odds (step-by-step arithmetic)
Converting odds into implied probability helps you judge whether a bet offers value. I’ll show the formulas and step-by-step arithmetic.
Decimal odds → implied probability
Formula: implied probability = 1 ÷ decimal odds.
Example: decimal 2.50
- 1 ÷ 2.50
- Do digit-by-digit: 1.00 ÷ 2.50 = 0.40
- Convert to percentage: 0.40 × 100 = 40.00%
So decimal 2.50 implies a 40% chance.
Fractional odds → implied probability
Formula: implied probability = denominator ÷ (numerator + denominator)
Example: fractional 5/1
- numerator = 5, denominator = 1
- numerator + denominator = 5 + 1 = 6
- denominator ÷ (numerator + denominator) = 1 ÷ 6
- 1.000 ÷ 6 = 0.166666… (work digit by digit if needed)
- Convert to percentage: 0.166666… × 100 = 16.67%
So 5/1 implies about 16.67%.
American odds → implied probability
If positive (e.g., +150): implied probability = 100 ÷ (American odds + 100)
Example: +150
- 100 ÷ (150 + 100) = 100 ÷ 250
- 100.000 ÷ 250 = 0.40
- × 100 = 40.00%
If negative (e.g., −200): implied probability = |American odds| ÷ (|American odds| + 100)
Example: −200
- |−200| = 200
- 200 ÷ (200 + 100) = 200 ÷ 300
- 200.000 ÷ 300 = 0.666666…
- × 100 = 66.67%
These conversions let you compare formats and evaluate the true implied chance.
How to read football odds in major betting markets
Knowing odds format is only step one — next, understand what the odds mean in each market.
1. Match Result (1X2)
- 1 = Home win
- X = Draw
- 2 = Away win
Example: Home 2.10, Draw 3.40, Away 3.60 (decimal)
- Implied probabilities: 47.62%, 29.41%, 27.78% (note: bookmaker margin will make total > 100%).
2. Over / Under Goals
Common line: Over 2.5 / Under 2.5
- If Over 2.5 is 1.80, that means the bookmaker thinks the total goals will likely be 3+.
- Over/Under odds reflect the likelihood of total goals exceeding or staying below the line.
3. Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
- Yes or No.
- Odds show the market’s expectation that both teams will score at least one goal.
4. Handicap / Asian Handicap
- Handicap evens the playing field by giving a virtual advantage/disadvantage.
- Example: Home −1.5 at 2.10 — home team must win by 2+ goals for the bet to win.
- Asian handicap removes draws by splitting stakes or using half/goals (.25, .5, .75) and reduces variance.
5. Correct Score & Specials
- Correct score markets pay high odds because predicting exact scores is hard.
- Specials include first-goal scorer, time of first goal, referee markets, etc.
Why odds change (and what it signals)
Odds move for several reasons:
- New information: injuries, lineup changes, and weather.
- Heavy betting: large stakes on an outcome force bookies to adjust prices to balance liability.
- Market makers/markets: exchanges and sharp bettors can shift lines.
- Time decay: in-play odds change with game events (goals, red cards).
What movement signals: sharp early movement often indicates professional money or significant news. Late spikes may be public money or late news. Tracking movement (odds history) helps find opportunities.
How to spot value in football odds
A value bet is when your estimated probability of an outcome is higher than the bookmaker’s implied probability.
Steps to find value:
- Convert bookmaker odds to implied probability.
- Estimate your own probability using stats, form, head-to-head, injuries, and situational factors.
- If your estimated probability > bookmaker implied probability, you may have value.
Example (decimal):
- Bookmaker odds: 2.50 → implied 40.00%
- Your estimate: 50.00%
- Value? Yes — because 50% > 40%. Expected value is positive.
Practical tips:
- Use odds comparison across sportsbooks to find the highest payout.
- Consider bookmaker margin — compare fair odds (sum of implied probabilities) to identify the softest book.
- Use a staking strategy (e.g., flat stake, Kelly criterion) to manage bankroll when pursuing value.
Common mistakes new bettors make when reading odds
- Confusing profit with total return — decimal includes stake; fractional lists profit only.
- Betting only on favourites — favourites lose value if you always back them.
- Ignoring implied probability — not knowing the true chance leads to poor decisions.
- Failing to compare odds across bookmakers — missing better payouts.
- Chasing losses — increasing stakes after losing is dangerous.
- Not accounting for bookmaker margin (vig) — your winning threshold is higher than the implied probability.
Quick cheat sheet: odds formats & meaning
| Format | Example | How to read | Implied probability |
| Decimal | 2.50 | Return 2.50 per unit staked (includes stake) | 1 ÷ 2.50 = 40.00% |
| Fractional | 5/1 | Win 5 for every 1 staked (profit) | 1 ÷ (5+1) = 16.67% |
| American | +150 / −200 | +150: win 150 on a 100 stake. −200: stake 200 to win 100 | +150 → 100/(150+100)=40.00%; −200 → 200/(200+100)=66.67% |
Keep this table handy when switching between sites or guides.
Responsible betting & bankroll basics
Betting should be entertainment, not income, unless you’re professionally skilled and funded. Key rules:
- Set a bankroll — only bet what you can afford to lose.
- Use unit sizing — decide a unit (e.g., 1% of bankroll) and base stakes on units.
- Avoid chasing losses — stick to your staking plan.
- Keep records — track stakes, odds, outcomes, ROI.
- Know the law — check local betting regulations and age limits.
- Seek help if needed — responsible gambling tools, self-exclusion, and support lines.
Conclusion — Practice and use tools
Reading football odds is a mix of simple math and smart judgment. Start with decimal odds if you’re learning, practice converting to implied probability, compare odds across bookmakers, and focus on finding value. Use odds converters, comparison sites, and a basic staking plan to keep your bets disciplined.
Start reading odds like a pro
Ready to put this into practice? Try these three quick steps right now:
- Open any sportsbook and pick three markets (1X2, Over/Under, BTTS).
- Convert the odds into implied probability (use the formulas above).
- Compare your own estimated probability for each market — is there value?
FAQs
Q: What do +100 or −100 odds mean?
+100 means you win £100 on a £100 stake (decimal 2.00). −100 is unusual but would denote needing to stake £100 to win £100 (decimal 2.00); usually you’ll see rounder favourites like −110, −150.
Q: Which odds are best for beginners?
Decimal odds are simplest — they show total return at a glance.
Q: How do bookmakers set football odds?
Bookmakers combine statistical models, expert opinion, market exposure, and desired profit margin. They adjust odds to balance liability.
Q: What is “even odds”?
Even odds mean 1/1 (fractional), 2.00 (decimal), or +100 (American) — a 50% implied chance.Q: Is comparing odds across bookies worth it?
Yes — small differences compound over time and can turn losing records into profitable ones.